Swing States Trends 10/4/24-10/11/24

[WillyBoyXXX]

Bearing in mind the margin of error from all the polls averaged, which can range from 1% to 4%, this remains too close to call. Harris doesn’t seem to be screwing up, while Trump – for some reason – is spending too much time in states he really can’t win. It’s been clear since the debate, if he concentrates on PA and WI, he does move the needle - but California and other solid blue states?

 

[WillyBoyXXX]

Harris has been losing ground in polls everywhere the past few days. I can see a couple of blue wall states flipping to Trump by next week.

 

[Acebb]

This may make a difference:


RFK Jr. voters shifting to Trump to deliver battleground state wins

• In Arizona, 51.8% of Kennedy’s supporters backed Trump versus 31.3% for Harris.
• In Georgia, Trump earned 54.1% of Kennedy’s supporters versus 34.5% for Harris.
• In Michigan, Kennedy’s supporters backed Trump at 64.3% versus Harris at 25%.
• In Nevada, 42.6% of Kennedy’s supporters backed Trump versus 37.5% for Harris.
• In Pennsylvania, 61.9% of Kennedy’s supporters backed Trump versus 32% for Harris.
• In Wisconsin, 60.4% of Kennedy’s supporters backed Trump versus 33.8% for Harris.

 

[Codebreaker]

Abortion, Jan 6th, and 34 felonies is just too much to overcome.

 

[WillyBoyXXX]

If RFK ‘s numbers in a 3-way race made more than a 1% to 3% difference, the flow of support to Trump might be more impactful; but RFK withdrew nearly 2 months ago, and pales in comparison to Harris’s steady decline lately.

 

[WillyBoyXXX]

Abortion, Jan 6th, and 34 felonies is just too much to overcome.

You're citing issues that make not a single iota of difference to his supporters. Trump's appeal is simply not rationally explained, and isn't therefore diminished by appeals to reason. Evidence of this fact abounds here. Trust not in the intelligence and reasoning capacity of the typical voter. America, as always, gets the President it deserves.

 

[SheriffJoe]

You're citing issues that make not a single iota of difference to his supporters. Trump's appeal is simply not rationally explained, and isn't therefore diminished by appeals to reason. Evidence of this fact abounds here. Trust not in the intelligence and reasoning capacity of the typical voter. America, as always, gets the President it deserves.

"appeals to reason" LOL

Dude, your so-called "Red State Death Watch" spreadsheets during Covid were just as laughably fictitious as your new "swing state trends". The RIGGED PCR test was just as FAKE, PHONY and FALSE as these "numbers" from these hilarious clown poll aggregators.

Garbage in, garbage out.

The 2024 election is already signed, sealed and delivered for Trump, no matter what nonsense they PSYOP you with election night.

The military WILL be involved this time catching all the CHEATERS.

But don't take my word for it, listen to THE BOSS

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1845488008339853804

Hear that? One way or the other, 2024 is a done deal.

Bet your house on it!

 

[MAGAking1]

Silly Boy loves the fake narratives and his silly little fiction based charts.

 

[Greenbacks]

 

[SheriffJoe]

So-called "polling" is starting to look like the hoe's legs..

 

[WillyBoyXXX]

"appeals to reason" LOL

Dude, your so-called "Red State Death Watch" spreadsheets during Covid were just as laughably fictitious as your new "swing state trends". The RIGGED PCR test was just as FAKE, PHONY and FALSE as these "numbers" from these hilarious clown poll aggregators.

Garbage in, garbage out.

The 2024 election is already signed, sealed and delivered for Trump, no matter what nonsense they PSYOP you with election night.

The military WILL be involved this time catching all the CHEATERS.

But don't take my word for it, listen to THE BOSS

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1845488008339853804

Hear that? One way or the other, 2024 is a done deal.

Bet your house on it!

Curious. Your childish ranting reeks of fear. Of what, I’m wondering, are you afraid? That Trump might lose again? It’s a possibility, you know. Leaving you with what? That yawning emptiness you’ve been feeling for 4 long years. Well, take heart. If I were a betting man – which I am – I’d bet on Harris to flub it soon. She fails to grasp that a campaign is show business, and her act is timeworn and feeble; while Trump’s is always more than ever fresh, and just stupid enough to rope in all the suckers.

 

[WillyBoyXXX]

So-called "polling" is starting to look like the hoe's legs..

View attachment 103369

Touting for Peter Thiel? Really? Or are you just one of the legion of bettors who have no clue how sportsbooks make money?

 

[WillyBoyXXX]

There are two women in my running group who are avid Republicans, and voting for Trump. When I remind them of the company they keep – dimwits like most here, squealing lies they’re just repeating, in a kind of MAGA moron circle jerk – they just laugh. They’re in it because all there is at the end of the Trump rainbow is an extension of tax cuts which, otherwise, will end next year, and, god knows, those two are all about the money.

 

[SheriffJoe]

Touting for Peter Thiel? Really? Or are you just one of the legion of bettors who have no clue how sportsbooks make money?

I've forgotten more than you'll ever learn. You're talking to a guy who used to do nothing on the Internet except blindly bet as much money as humanly possible chasing 'off' numbers, i.e., slow books not listed on Don Best. Thankfully, those 20 hour work days 20 years ago are behind me.

This election is one massive sting operation, nothing more or less. Your polling data is as FAKE as that Covid PCR test, from which all your hysterical Covid "data" was derived. See, if the PCR test was fake, ALL the data was fake. And if ALL the data was fake, your entire "death counter" spreadsheets were pure trash.

Fear? Of what? What is there to fear when we're under Continuity of Government protocols? You think a guy worth 7 billion dollars would run for president without guaranteed 100% control? Are you nuts? Think about it logically. Here you guys are "handicapping" these elections like Trump is another Clinton or Bush. Fools.

You know what isn't fake? My "sealed indictments counter" - as real as any .gov website. I'd love to see your spreadsheets tracking those. Go get yourself a pacer.gov account and get cracking.

 

[MAGAking1]

There are two women in my running group who are avid Republicans, and voting for Trump. When I remind them of the company they keep – dimwits like most here, squealing lies they’re just repeating, in a kind of MAGA moron circle jerk – they just laugh. They’re in it because all there is at the end of the Trump rainbow is an extension of tax cuts which, otherwise, will end next year, and, god knows, those two are all about the money.

 

[WillyBoyXXX]

Harris’s POLL numbers in the blue wall states (except in PA) are collapsing faster than Gaza hospitals. Her post-debate bounce has flat-out disappeared, and I can’t see her FOX News interview helping. Barring any major flubs by Trump or Vance, the trends now favors their chances. They’re only weakening in GA, which they should win (one way or another), and if they work PA a bit more, they can pull it off.

 

[WillyBoyXXX]

If the last few days of POLLING are any indicator, the past week has been a disaster for Harris. She’s down in every blue wall state, including PA, but still clings to tiny leads. Trump got a big bounce in GA, which settled down sunbelt jitters.

 

[MAGAking1]

For those who enjoy these things

 

[Greenbacks]

For those who enjoy these things

View attachment 103583

He's starting to pull away

 

[WillyBoyXXX]

For those who enjoy these things

View attachment 103583

The only problem I have with RCP is their inclusion of too many polls in their averaging which have right-leaning pollsters – ie. they work for republican organizations. Used to be more reliably non-partisan than they are today. That said, the RCP averages posted above are pretty accurate. At least they correspond with my own, within the 1% range. I do have Trump higher in GA, but lower in a few others, but only by microtads.